Griffin Wong preps you for Tuesday’s Play-In Tournament game between the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.
The epic six-way clash for the West’s third through eighth seeds has finally been decided, and for the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies, the season will come down to a 48-minute battle of attrition on the hardwood. The hardwood in question will be the Chase Center, as the Warriors earned the tiebreaker by virtue of winning the season series.
The winner will be rewarded with the seventh seed in the playoffs and a first-round series against the young but talented Houston Rockets. The loser will face a home game for their playoff survival against either the Sacramento Kings or Dallas Mavericks, both of which finished with losing records.
Golden State is a seven-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 228. The Warriors are -305 on the Moneyline, and the Grizzlies are +245.
DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for the big game, so I’ll take you through my two captain’s picks, two FLEX picks, and one fade. Let’s dive in:
For up-to-the-minuSet your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $500K Showdown Special [$100K to 1st] (WAS @ PHI).
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Stephen Curry ($15,600 CP) – Picking Curry is a function of him being the best player in the court, and in the playoffs, top-level talent tends to win out. Let’s just take a quick run through Curry’s stats since Jimmy Butler ($13,500 CP) was added to the team: 27.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game on 47-42-92 shooting splits, for an average game score of 21.5, with Golden State going 22-6 with him on the floor across that span. His stats during his first MVP season in 2014-15: 23.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 7.7 assists on 49-44-91 shooting splits, for an average game score of 20.6, as the Warriors went 67-13. 37-year-old Curry might somehow be better than his 26-year-old self.
Since the All-Star break, Memphis has struggled mightily on defense, allowing the league’s seventh-most points per game. Curry will probably do plenty of damge on his own, especially now that Jaylen Wells, who guarded Curry for a total of 10 minutes across the teams’ three matchups this season and held him to just eight shot attempts on 56 possessions, is done for the season with a broken wrist. I’d expect Desmond Bane ($13,200 CP) to get the primary Curry matchup tonight, but he guarded Curry for just one total minute throughout the teams’ first three matchups. Curry has good memories against the Grizzlies; in their most recent matchup two weeks ago, he dropped 52 points, 10 rebounds, eight assists, and a season-high five steals (95.0 FPTS) in a 134-125 Warriors win.
Zach Edey ($10,200 CP) – Trusting a rookie with my captain’s pick is risky, but Edey has a high floor and a cheap salary that makes him a valuable asset regardless. The seven-foot-four center is 22 years old and has plenty of big-game experience in college at Purdue, where the Boilermakers finished as the national runner-ups in 2024. He’s also played his best basketball towards the end of his rookie season, as he’s averaging 9.5 points and 16.3 boards (36.2 FPTS) per game over his last four games. The Canadian has also started to play 30 or more minutes on a more consistent basis under interim head coach Tuomas Iisalo.
As a note of caution, Golden State does have the capability to capitalize on some of Edey’s weaknesses. The Warriors have drawn the second-most fouls in the league since adding Butler, and Edey is extremely foul-prone, which could keep his minutes low if Curry or Butler can successfully bait him into a free trip to the foul line. This new-look Golden State squad has also, surprisingly, allowed the sixth-fewest rebounds per game despite lacking a traditional big man on its roster. Still, Edey recorded 10 points, 16 rebounds, and four blocks (40.0 FPTS) in the teams’ most recent outing, playing 32 minutes despite fouling four times.
FLEX Plays
Ja Morant ($10,000) – I wanted to put Morant as a captain’s pick, given the excellent run of form he’s experienced since the start of March, but I wanted to offer more versatility among my captain’s picks, as Morant would be almost as much of a financial constraint as Curry and force you into a similar lineup construction. Still, he’s looked almost like the prime version of himself — 28.3 points and 6.7 assists (44.2 FPTS) per game — over his last three games of the regular season. Morant has scored 30 or more points in three of his last five games, and he’s taken on a bigger role in the offense, posting the league’s third-highest usage rate since Iisalo took over the team.
The Warriors have been excellent with Butler on the roster, posting the league’s best defensive rating across that span, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Morant is going to struggle. Jackson will probably be bottled up somewhat by Green or Butler, making Morant targeting one of Golden State’s guards — Curry, Brandin Podziemski ($7,000), or Moses Moody ($5,200) — Memphis’ best option. In just four minutes that Morant has been guarded by Moody this season, he scored 11 points and shot five-for-eight from the field, and he’s also gone two-for-four for five points in three minutes matched up against Podziemski. In his most recent game against the Warriors, he scored 36 points and added three rebounds and six assists (52.25 FPTS), making five of his eight three-point attempts.
Draymond Green ($7,400) – I’m not entirely buying the self-manufactured Defensive Player of the Year hype that Green has gotten, but he’s been very solid since Butler joined the roster, averaging 9.8 points, 6.2 boards, 5.8 assists, and 2.9 combined steals/blocks per game with some sterling defensive metrics to boot. I like his chances of stuffing the stat sheet tonight against a Grizzlies team that, since the All-Star break, has allowed the seventh-most points, 12th-most rebounds, and ninth-most assists per game. While Jackson has held him to just three points on one-for-five shooting in 13 minutes of action this season, he should be able to do more damage against Edey, who he’s tortured for nearly eight and a half minutes while scoring 22 points, shooting seven-for-15 from the field and four-for-11 from deep. His only triple-double of the season came against Memphis on April 1, when he recorded 13 points, 10 rebounds, and 12 assists (53.0 FPTS).
Fades
Jonathan Kuminga ($6,000) – The most glaring omission from Golden State’s rotation during the 124-119 overtime defeat to the LA Clippers on the season’s final day that relegated the Warriors to the Play-In Tournament was Kuminga. The former seventh overall pick is objectively a better player than the man who was drafted seven slots lower than him in the draft — Moody — and has scored double-digit points in 12 of his 15 games since returning from a serious ankle injury that cost him nearly three months. But the freakishly athletic Congolese youngster can’t shoot — he’s attempted only 35 triples since his return and made only six (17.1%), and when he’s on the court with Green and Butler, the spacing simply gets too cramped for Butler and Curry to operate.
There’s a non-zero chance he’ll be in the rotation for tonight’s game; it doesn’t seem like Steve Kerr’s decision to bench him was a permanent one. He’s six-foot-eight and quick, so while he’s merely an average defender overall, he’s had flashes of slowing down some of the league’s best forwards; although his track record against Jackson (in a minuscule sample size) isn’t great, big isolation-oriented power forwards like Julius Randle and Kevin Durant have ranked among his most 10 most frequent assignments, and he held his own against both. But unless Kerr is confident that he’ll be that much better at guarding Jackson than Gary Payton II ($3,600), who played ahead of him on Sunday, his fantasy upside isn’t worth his price tag.
THE OUTCOME
Ultimately, it comes down to form and top-end talent. In both, the Warriors have the edge.
Golden State has been one of the league’s best teams with Butler on the roster, a tremendous midseason turnaround, and since the deal, it has gone 23-8 with a plus-9.2 net rating, the league’s third-best mark. That’s elite. Across that same span, Memphis has posted a negative-0.3 net rating and a 13-18 record.
I’m not completely against the move to replace Jenkins with Iisalo — since the coaching change, the Grizzlies have a positive net rating — and Morant and Jackson, if healthy, are a formidable duo. But Curry will be the best player on the floor, and there’s a reasonable argument to be made that Butler — especially if he turns into Playoff Jimmy — is the second-best. The Warriors will pull away with a traditional third-quarter Curry flurry, and that’ll be just enough to secure a date with the Rockets.
